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The explosive growth and increasing complexity of global financial markets are defining characteristics of the contemporary world economy. Unfortunately, financial globalization has been accompanied by a marked increase in the frequency and severity of financial crises. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has taken a central role in managing these crises through its loans to developing countries. Despite extensive analysis and criticism of the IMF in recent years, key questions remain unanswered. Why does the Fund treat some countries more generously than others? To what extent is IMF lending driven by political factors rather than economic concerns? In whose interests does the IMF act? In this book, Mark Copelovitch offers novel answers to these questions. Combining statistical analysis with detailed case studies, he demonstrates how the politics and policies of the IMF have evolved over the last three decades in response to fundamental changes in the composition of international capital flows.
- Sales Rank: #2146020 in Books
- Published on: 2010-07-26
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 8.98" h x .71" w x 5.98" l, 1.40 pounds
- Binding: Paperback
- 394 pages
Review
"The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is one of the world's most important economic institutions, especially in times of crisis. Yet we lack a full understanding of how and why it operates as it does, and in particular of the political forces that affect it. In The International Monetary Fund in the Global Economy, Mark Copelovitch makes the case that the IMF's behavior responds to the interests represented by the major financial powers, as well as to the goals of the IMF's professional staff. Copelovitch presents a series of clear-headed, theoretically grounded arguments, then subjects them to empirical assessment. He analyzes an original database of 197 IMF programs over twenty years, and then provides two extensive country studies, of IMF relations with Mexico and Korea in the 1980s and 1990s. Both the statistical analysis and the detailed narratives provide compelling evidence for Copelovitch's political economy arguments. The International Monetary Fund in the Global Economy is a careful, persuasive application of the ideas and methods of modern political economy to a crucially important topic. It will be of interest to any serious scholar or student of international political economy, international relations, and international economics."
Jeffry Frieden, Professor of Government, Harvard University
"This is an outstanding piece of political science that combines richly detailed case studies based on primary documents with impressive quantitative results. Copelovitch argues convincingly that banks heavily influence IMF lending, but their influence depends on the composition of capital flows and the consistency of the interests of the major powers."
Randall Stone, Associate Professor of Political Science, University of Rochester
"This book represents a major contribution to the growing literature on the IMF and, more generally, to the understanding of the political economy of international organizations. Using an original 'common agency' perspective, Mark Copelovitch presents an innovative way to address decision-making at the international financial institutions, which is driven both by the major shareholder governments and by the bureaucratic staff of these organizations. Copelovitch shows that both the intensity and the heterogeneity of the preferences of the IMF's major shareholders determine whether a country will receive favorable treatment from the institution. The book furthermore shows that the nature of IMF lending has changed because of major historical shifts in patterns of international financing from concentrated sovereign bank lending to decentralized portfolio investment and bank lending to the private sector. The greater collective action problems generated by these new forms of international finance force the IMF to make larger loans with more extensive conditionality in order to reassure global markets. Copelovitch substantiates his theoretical claims with both sophisticated statistical analysis and detailed case studies. This is a must-read for both scholars of international political economy and policy-makers interested in the IMF's evolving role in the global financial system."
James Raymond Vreeland, School of Foreign Service and Government Department, Georgetown University and author of The IMF and Economic Development (Cambridge, 2003)
About the Author
Mark Copelovitch is Assistant Professor of Political Science and Public Affairs at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. Professor Copelovitch studies and teaches international political economy, with a focus on global financial governance, exchange rates and monetary institutions, the effects of global capital flows on national economic policies, and theories of international cooperation. Professor Copelovitch is a graduate of Yale University and Harvard University, where he received his Ph.D. in 2005. Prior to his appointment at Wisconsin-Madison, he was a postdoctoral fellow at the Center for Globalization and Governance at Princeton University.
Most helpful customer reviews
1 of 1 people found the following review helpful.
A dry and scholarly Harvard/Yale piece. Short on examples but good overview
By Graham H. Seibert
This is the first Amazon review of a book that came out in 2010. I read it as background to my investigation of Ukraine's IMF loans about which I wanted to write.
It offers a good overview of the IMF in the period of the late `80s through the mid-2000s. It misses the IMF activity after the crisis of 2008, and the tenure of its two most well-known chiefs, Dominique Strauss-Kahn and Christine Lagarde.
The question is, what goes into IMF decision-making on loans? Are the decisions made by IMF staff, the United States, or the principle countries which fund the IMF taken as a group?
Let me put the IMF in perspective. From my own research, the IMF's balance sheet is about 500 billion dollars. Half a trillion. Comparing that with the sovereign debt of the G5 countries:
US - 16 trillion
Japan 10.5 trillion
Germany 2.8 trillion
France - 2.3 trillion
UK - 2.2 trillion
we find that IMF borrowers as a group owe about 3% as much as the national debt of the five biggest members. If the G5 is able to use the IMF to induce foreign governments to act in ways supportive of their own interests, it is a fairly cheap investment.
We learn that the IMF consolidated its programs for truly needy countries in 1999 via the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF). It provides concessional loans - low interest rates, about half a percent per annum - to really needy countries. Concessional lending amounts to 1/3 of loans but only 7% of loan volume.
This book focuses on loans made to countries with stronger finances. The nature of international lending has shifted. Thirty years ago most countries borrowed from large money-center banks. The banks formed consortia, to spread the risk on one hand, and to raise the cost of default by any borrower country to the level of an international affair.
The game has since changed. More countries borrow on the bond markets. Bondholders are very numerous - there were 1500 involved in Argentina's 2001 bankruptcy - and not well coordinated. As I write this they are still sorting out Argentina's default in US Federal Court.
Under the bank lending system, the IMF could get prior agreement from the banks: we will lend if you will lend. They would go in together. Under the bond system, the IMF has to make the decision of whether or not to lend without waiting to see whether the country can sell bonds. They lend, and then the country does what it can to sell bonds.
Another way to characterize this is that there are more PNG - Private non-guaranteed - loans, loans to businesses and bonds, and fewer PPG - Public and public guaranteed - loans being made. This decreases the IMF's leverage by multiplying the number of players.
An IMF loan involves amounts and conditions. The conditions come in different levels, from demands down to suggestions.
IMF programs contain several different types of conditionality, each differing in content, specificity, and the degree to which it is "binding" on the borrower country.
Performance criteria (PCs) are the most specific and binding type of conditions. They stipulate the conditions under which additional tranches of the loan released. No compliance, no (additional) money. They may involve computed targets, such as deficit percentage, or specific actions, such as privatizations or legislation passed.
Prior actions (PAs) are measures that a country agrees to take before the IMF approves a loan. The quid pro quo for receiving the loan.
There may also be soft objectives, a statement of non-binding goals which may be taken into consideration upon program reviews. Non-binding goals may be converted to PCs over the course of a loan.
IMF loans are quite spread out. The largest loans at this writing are:
Romania $15.3
Ukraine $13.4
Greece $13.3
Hungary $11.1
Pakistan $8.2
Ireland $7.3
Turkey $5.3
Belarus $3.3
accounting for about 15% of the balance sheet. These loans are significant to the borrowing countries, accounting for 20% or more of national debt in some cases.
How much a country gets, and under what conditions, is a political consideration. Copelovitch's analysis is at the end of this review. If all of the G5 countries are exposed to the borrowing country, it will get more attention. If these countries have different policy objectives with regard to the borrower, there is more "agency slack," in other words, the IMF staff has more latitude to decide what the terms and conditions should be.
The IMF staff has its own bureaucratic objectives. Making loans and following up is their business. More loans, and more conditions, mean more work for the bureaucrats. More junkets. Quoting from the book "US Senator Lauch Faircloth (Republican - North Carolina) articulated this view most colorfully during the Asian financial crisis, when he attacked the Fund as "a set of `silk-suited dilettantes' given to a diet of 'champagne and caviar at the expense of the American taxpayer."
While Copelovitch says that political considerations are significant in the award of loans, he doesn't go into detail. In the case of Ukraine I can imagine that the big loans of the mid-90s were made to encourage the country down the path of capitalism. The loan 2010 loan facility of $15 billion, cancelled after the first $3 billion, is easier to understand.
Ukraine experience rapid growth in the early 2000s. The leaders who arose through the Orange Revolution had a European orientation. Foreign banks flooded the Ukrainian market. Ukraine was hit hard by the crisis of 2008, with which it had little to do. The hryvnya exchange rate fell from 5 to the dollar to 8, leaving many borrowers unable to service their loans. This was a major risk to G5 banks. It looked as though the Yanukovych government might continue on the path towards joining Europe. An IMF loan seemed like a good inducement.
The Program Conditions required that Ukraine engage in pension reform, cutting its social expense by raising the pension ages (55 for women, 60 for men) and ending the state subsidy of imported gas for consumers. Both moves appeared too politically costly; neither was done. The IMF cancelled the loan, and Ukraine looked increasingly to Russia for loans. As of the end of 2011, debt to Russia was $67 billion, several times its IMF debt.
Copelovitch concludes this statement of his thesis as follows: "In summary, this theoretical framework yields the following testable hypotheses.
* IMF loans will be larger and contain fewer conditions when aggregate G-5 commercial bank exposure is higher (G-5 preference intensity).
* IMF loans will be smaller and contain more conditions when G-5 commercial bank exposure is more unevenly distributed (G-5 preference heterogeneity).
* The relationship between the intensity and heterogeneity of G-5 commercial bank exposure is conditional and interactive (common agency/agency slack).
* IMF loans will be larger and contain more conditions when bond financing constitutes a larger share of a country's private external debt (staff expectations about catalytic financing).
* IMF loans will be larger and contain more conditions when non-sovereign borrowing constitutes a larger share of a country's private external debt (staff expectations about catalytic financing).
* The increased conditionality imposed in bond and non-sovereign financing cases is most likely to be in the form of prior actions (staff expectations about catalytic financing)."
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